Fitch rating agency affirmed credit rating of Poland.
Fitch rating agency announced a decision about keeping Poland's credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F2 for long and short term liabilities respectively in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities respectively in local currency. Rating's outlook has been unchanged.
Fitch rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates solid macro fundamentals, including a healthy banking system and sound monetary framework. According to the Agency the recent proposals connected with the conversion of CHF mortgage loans has largely abated the risk for the banking system. The costs of compensation for the exchange rate spread charged to customers, although relatively high, in Fitch's view would remain manageable for the banks.
Forecasts of GDP dynamics in following years has been presented in the press release. Agency expects GDP growth will accelerate to 3% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018 from 2.7% in 2016. Agency's analysts expect gradual accelerating of economic growth in the following years, as a consequence of faster utilization of EU funds, the fall in unemployment rate and the growth in family 500+ social transfers.
Rating agency foresees growth of budget deficit to 3% this year from an estimated 2.5% in 2016. Public debt levels forecast by Fitch in the following years are lower that MoF's projections included in The Public Finance Sector Debt Management Strategy in the years 2017-2020.
According to the Agency, Poland's rating could be raised as a result of continued high GDP growth or continued reduction in external debt ratio supported by stronger current account balances and non-debt capital inflows. On the other hand, rating could be lowered in case of deterioration of public finances (growth of public debt, higher than 3% budget deficit) or weaker macro-economic policy framework (deterioration in the investment climate, macro instability and lower GDP growth).