On 20 October 2017 rating agency Standard & Poor's announced a decision about keeping Poland's credit rating unchanged at the level of BBB+/A-2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/A-2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency. Rating's outlook remained at a stable level.
S&P rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates solid economic fundamentals and profitable and well capitalised banking sector. Additionally, S&P noticed resurgent EU transfers and robust external demand. Agency underlined that Polish wage levels, although increasing, are low relative to levels in the eurozone, while educational attainment is high. S&P presented forecasts of macroeconomic indicators in the coming years. It estimates real GDP growth at 4.2% in 2017 and general government deficit at 2.6%. Among threats to the Polish economy it mentions i.a. declining working age population, weak private investment flow or projected growth of current account balance.
According to the agency, Poland's rating could be raised as a result of lower than expected current account deficit or reduction in net government debt and containment of interest expenses. Rating can be raised if budgetary policies take into account to a much larger extent Poland's demographic situation or if stronger potential growth translates into Poland's GDP per capita levels to converge permanently toward those of Eurozone. On the other hand, rating could be lowered as a result of a deterioration of public finances and also due to state-owned institutions' activities that could weaken the government's balance sheet. Another reason could be, perceived by the agency, potential weakening independence of the National Bank of Poland.