No 19-2014 BEER tastes better in a panel of neighbours. On equilibrium exchange rates in CEE countries - P. Roszkowski, K. Sławińska, A. Torój

We follow the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to estimate the misalignments of real exchange rates in selected Central European countries, including Poland, in a sample that covers both pre- and post-crisis period. We add to the existing literature by applying a panel approach with FM-OLS estimator of the cointegrating relationship that represents the BEER equation. In our quarterly sample, comprising the years 2000-2013 for Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania, the parameters of real interest rate disparity, risk premium, Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect and terms of trade take the expected sign. These estimates seem to be more precise and robust to post-crisis instability than those obtained on the basis of time series approach, at least for Poland.